I keep hearing about Iraq, how we're going to be there for years and years. Something I was pretty much saying before the war started, not that I'm some kind of expert. But I just couldn't see then how we'd be able to get in and out as quickly as all that, and my cynical side just assumed we'd be staying for the long-haul as we did in Europe, Japan, etc, with our bases. And the news this morning was all about how Gen. Petraeus (sp?) apparently said something this weekend about it usually taking 9-10 years for counter-insurgency operations. Of course, the
But one guy did make a comment that kinda made me sit back and go "hel-lo." Kinda put that ten years in perspective. He said something along the lines of "there are third graders at bus stops all over the US that will be fighting in Iraq in ten years." Oh, my goodness. That includes my little sister and her friends, and my 2 oldest nieces. I hadn't quite looked at it in that light before. It kind of makes it more real, somehow. Not like it wasn't real before. Just the long-term is more real. I guess I'm just used to living in the here and now, and looking ahead that many years...well. Anyway.
But it got me to thinking even more about what would work in Iraq. What would make a difference? I just don't see how anything could. The enmity and hate and intolerance in that region of the world is just so deep I can't imagine anything will help. Except for another strong leader rising to power in one faction and dominating the others. Eventually taking control of the country. And I'm not talking strong leader as we'd see in the west. To me it just seems like it would be much more ruthless than that. Another dictator. Not something I'm advocating, mind you, I just can't see how anything else can help with the level of insurgency and violence going on. How do you quell that at this point? Diplomacy sure as heck isn't going to work. It'll take that strong/ruthless leader - and the people being sick and tired of dying for nothing. Maybe I'm too pessimistic. But when I saw/see the problems Paraguay has had moving from a dictatorship to a democracy, and that's just a little nothing country, pretty darn stable, without the gazillion ethnic groups or religious groups, just struggling economically. Didn't have the violence and chaos along with the bad economy...
Would it take the two things though, that type of leader and the people being sick and tired? Or just one or the other? Admittedly, I don't know much about the fighting in Northern Ireland, but it seems to me it only started to stop when the people said Enough and the fighting groups started to have a voice/role politically....they had more of a stake in stability. But that could be a total misunderstanding on my part. [g] I'm hazy on the details. Of course, I'm also one of those people that thinks we probably had our best chance of peace between Israel and Palestine when Hamas got elected. Because they (Hamas) then had a stake other than "hey, let's just destroy Israel." There might have been a chance to make progress. Might not have been able to get them to admit right away with their "out loud voice" that Israel has a right to exist, but might have been able to get them to let Israel exist in peace. Hmmm. Maybe I'm just too naive. But to me it seemed like we didn't even try...
So. That's what I've been thinking about lately. I think I'll stop now, before I totally alienate everyone I know. [g] I wish I could turn my brain off like I can the TV. It's too muddling sometimes, and what does it matter? Ultimately I don't get to have a say in it anyway.
